On September 8, 2025, I attended the Grand Rapids Economic Club, where economist Diane Swonk shared timely insights for today’s unpredictable business climate. Regularly briefing the Federal Reserve, advising the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and providing expert commentary for CNBC, MSNBC, The New York Times, and The Washington Post, Swonk offered clarity amid uncertainty. Her perspective delivers both a reality check and actionable guidance, helping business owners navigate the challenges ahead with confidence and a clear path forward.
For business owners, her insights couldn’t be more relevant. The economy, much like the seasons, is always shifting—and right now we’re in a period of uncertainty that rivals, and in some ways exceeds, the pandemic years. Understandably, many companies are cautious about making major moves, from hiring to expansion.
🔑 Key Takeaways for Business Owners
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Stubborn Inflation
Swonk predicts that inflation will linger at around 3% this fall—persistently above the Fed's 2% target. The result? Operating costs remain high, margins get squeezed, and cash management becomes more critical than ever.
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Customers Feel Prices, Not Statistics Consumers don’t think in percentages—they feel the reality of higher prices. For businesses serving middle-income households, this means demand for non-essentials may soften while essentials hold steady. Recognizing these shifts can help in pricing and product strategy.
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Tariffs Are Driving Up Costs With tariffs squeezing profit margins, businesses will need to track expenses closely, consider supply chain alternatives, and evaluate pricing models to maintain profitability without alienating customers.
Spending Habits Are Shifting Vacation spending dropped nearly 50% in August, while insurance premiums continue to climb. For business owners, this signals a shift toward more cautious consumer behavior, with a greater focus on value, and increasing household financial stress—all of which affect purchasing decisions.
Why This Matters for Business Leaders
Diane closed with words that resonated with me:
“I hold on to hope.”
“It’s better to break bread than break ties.”
For business owners, this is a powerful reminder. While the economy may be beyond our control, how we lead, support our teams, and connect with our customers is firmly within our grasp.
This season of uncertainty is also a season of opportunity—for those willing to adapt, plan strategically, and lean into relationships. By staying financially agile and people-focused, businesses can not only weather the storm but position themselves for growth when conditions improve.
What Business Owners Should Do Next
This is the time to take a close look at your financial strategy:
Review your cash flow and cost projections.
Plan for inflation and potential tariff impacts.
Prepare now for possible tax consequences of shifting margins and spending patterns.
Partnering with a trusted CPA or advisor can turn uncertainty into smart action, laying the groundwork for sustainable growth. The economy may be uncertain, but strong planning and proactive decisions ensure your business stays ready for whatever comes next.